DETERMINASI INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

Ezra Sihombing, Budi Santosa

Abstract


Capital market in Indonesia is an emerging markets which in its development is very vulnerable to macroeconomic conditions in general. There are many macro variables that affecting the fluctuation of Jakarta composite index (JCI). So, the researcher are interested to search the factors affecting the Jakarta composite index (JCI) in Indonesia stock exchange (IDX). The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between four macroeconomic variables: BIRATE, INFLATION, MONEY SUPPLY, and EXCHANGE RATE against JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX . The data for assessing this research are acquired from monthly data from January 2000 to December 2012 report by Bank Indonesia. This research uses ordinary least square (OLS) to see any indication of relationship. This study also use a Classical Assumptions test and Goodness of Fit test to detect the significance of the data for further analysis .The research shows that there is no effect from BIRATE and INFLATION to influence JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX (JCI). It’s means that anticipated macro variables can’t be used to predict the movement of the JCI. While, MONEY SUPPLY and EXCHANGE RATE variable has significant effect on the movement of the JCI. This implies that in MONEY SUPPLY and EXCHANGE RATE is a good indicator for predicting the movement of the JCI.

Keywords


JCI; Jakarta Composite Index; BI Rate; Inflation; Money Supply; Exchange Rate; Foreign Exchange; Stocks; OLS; Multiple Auto Regression

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.25105/me.v22i3.3200

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